James Canton on the four power tools of tomorrow

Many people who spend their days looking ahead don't like being called "futurists": they assimilate that to being an advocate for a particular future. Paul Saffo from the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, for example, calls himself a "forecaster", a neutral observer of possible futures.

James Canton begins instead his speeches saying "I'm a futurist" - and the website of his organization, the Institute for Global Futures in San Francisco, is reachable at both globalfuturist.com and futureguru.com. He spoke yesterday night at the GDI in Zurich, and then I interviewed him on stage. In an intense speech that was at moments rather all-over-the-place and hard to follow (Roger Fischer was disappointed), Canton prognosticated an "extreme future" (that's the title of his new book, already out in German and scheduled for release in English in September) defined by speed, complexity, risks, change and uncertainty - which will be accompanied by "an explosion of opportunities" driven by "four power tools that will completely change our society".

Those are: bits, atoms, genes and neurons. Or, otherwise said, information technology and networks; nanotechnology; biotech; and cognitive sciences. He listed a catalog of possible developments, from nanoengineered health devices to "the Internet that may one day wake up with its own personality and its own agenda". And offered a strong plea for convergent thinking: "the defining trait of today and tomorrow is complexification - we are entering a multidimensional world of complex, dynamic and convergent trends".

This is his timeline of "global disruptive opportunities":

A few other things he said:

• European countries may soon start seeing a reduction in quality of life and competitiveness and a restriction of GDP due to labor shortages (the pressure on GDP will also come - globally - from the limited availability of energy, "unless a new significant source is found soon").
• the Japanese push for mobile autonomous systems (robots) is a response to aging and depopulation and to the country's anti-immigration attitudes.
• nations are increasingly competing for talent: that will soon turn into "innovation darwinism".

Comments

[Sam Clarke]

I think the new process by NanoSolar in conjunction with the plug in car will change the demand, and future perceived demand, for oil withing 10 years. This will creat a huge problem for such countries as Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria, as well as some of the little players. It appears that solar has arrived.
Sam Clarke